Petrol stocks in Pakistan have been reduced to approximately 379,442 tonnes. This equates to approximately 14-15 days of current demand. Social media platforms quickly hyped the number, leading to renewed worries about petrol scarcity in Pakistan. Shortly afterward, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) clarified the situation.
What Happened?
The National Coordination and Management Council (NCMC) met with Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik, OGRA officials, and Customs for an emergency meeting. A simple question has been posed: Is the country truly facing fuel shortages?
Their ending was encouraging. Reserves are ample for national requirements, and the supply shortages identified in the earlier Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC) reports have been eliminated. But the key reason for the sudden surge in demand, according to OGRA’s own analysis, lies with petrol stations and dealers buying up fuel supply in anticipation of prices rising.
The Provincial government has since instructed its authorities to enforce on the hoarders and ensure pumps run normally.
Why did people start panicking?
Tensions over major shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are causing a surge in international oil prices. Meanwhile, local concerns about a price increase began to spread. Put those two things together, and you get a predictable outcome: people rush to fill their tanks before prices go up, and dealers hold back stock for the same reason.
This is a trend that isn’t peculiar to Pakistan. When prices are in danger of rising, short-term hoarding or panic-buying can make it look as if there is a shortage when it actually isn’t. This is exactly what OGRA differentiates: there has to be a difference between a genuine shortage and our distribution issue and a momentary situation in which people are hoarding.
What the Reserve Numbers Actually Mean
The figure of 14 to 15 days is alarming in itself and should be interpreted in the context. Fuel or energy reserves are never a one-time stock of a single package that is simply depleted. They are operated partly by a rolling system, and there is a continuous flow of new fuel imported and distributed to replace fuel consumed. A reserve number is more of a point-in-time than a countdown to zero.
The key is that the resupply pipeline (imports, refining, distribution) is working well. At the current time, it is based on OGRA’s statement.
However, there is little time for error in this case. That cushion may decrease rapidly if hoarding continues, or imports are delayed. That’s why the crackdown on hoarders is more important than the number itself.
What does this mean for you?
As of yet, no confirmed shortage warrants a panic purchase. When they run around to the pump for fear of rumors, it seldom works out. It now places additional stress, which exacerbates the situation, rather than relieving it, especially when placed on top of any existing hoarding.
Conclusion
In a statement, OGRA has revealed that there is no actual shortage of petrol in the country at the moment. What it’s up against is a hoarding problem, caused by the dealers responding to rumors of a price rise. The true litmus test will be over the next few days. With proper enforcement of the crackdown by provincial authorities, fuel will be allowed to continue flowing uninterrupted. Even if the overall reserves in the country are adequate, there may be occasional gas shortages in some cities or petrol stations if the enforcement is weak.
